Reading the labels
The most important distinction is whether a value came from a public record or was created by the tool.
| Label | What it means | How to use it |
|---|---|---|
| EPA reported | A field copied or calculated directly from an EPA record. | Treat it as a public filing, but still check its reporting year and definition. |
| Research estimate | A published 2022 useful-heat, temperature, end-use, or fuel estimate from the Stanford study, joined by exact GHGRP facility ID. | Use the stated year and process scope. These are modeled research results, not measured site heat loads. |
| Public-data inference | The tool interprets reported names, types, sector, or location using stated rules. | Use it to form a question, not as confirmation of site equipment or operations. |
| Calculated | A result produced from public data and visible assumptions. | Change the assumptions and test a range; do not quote it as measured load. |
| Matched public data | A public grid, territory, tariff, or market record joined by location. | Use it as local context and confirm it against the customer’s account. |
If a value would normally appear on a utility bill, permit, equipment nameplate, or process control system, assume it still needs site confirmation.
Facility header and decision snapshot
The top of the detail identifies the facility, keeps the portfolio-ranking score visible, and summarizes technical fit, the energy case, grid exposure, timing, and the recommended next action.
- Sector
- A plain-language grouping based on the facility’s primary NAICS industry code.
- Heat band
- The largest published useful process-heat share in the below-160°C, 160–250°C, or above-250°C bands for a validated research match. Facilities without a usable research match retain their sector band. This portfolio filter is a screening classification, not a measured site temperature or a statement that every process has the same temperature.
- Confidence
- How suitable the sector is for a first-pass model, based on the expected consistency of its thermal processes. It is not a statistical confidence interval.
- Address
- The public facility location used for the map and geographic joins.
What the score means
The 1–99 score ranks facilities inside this tool. A larger estimated heat load contributes most, followed by the assumed electrifiable share, flexibility, model confidence, and lower-temperature fit.
score = heat scale × 45 + electrifiable share × 20 + shiftable share × 10 + confidence points + temperature fit
The heat scale is log10(addressable MW + 1) ÷ 2, limited to a value from 0 to 1. Confidence contributes 12 points for medium-high, 9 for medium, 7 for low-medium, or 4 for low. For a research match, temperature fit is 15 × low share + 10 × medium share + 4 × high share, using useful process-heat fractions that sum to one. The bands are below 160°C, 160–250°C, and above 250°C. The fallback retains 15, 10, or 4 points from its sector temperature anchor. Confidence, electrifiable share, and flexibility remain sector assumptions.
The score is clamped between 1 and 99 and labeled as a technical score. It is not a probability, project return, technical-feasibility grade, grid-readiness grade, or credit score. The separate decision cards keep evidence quality, energy economics, grid exposure, and timing visible without folding them into one opaque number.
The map and portfolio list use Base scenario assumptions and the default heat baseline when the dataset loads: validated Stanford 2022 process heat where matched, otherwise the EPA 2023 proxy. Editing assumptions or selecting another heat source changes the facility's modeled loads, economics, grid comparison, and recommended action, but does not re-rank the portfolio.
How the decision snapshot is assigned
| Decision card | Rule used by the application | Interpretation boundary |
|---|---|---|
| Technical fit | At least one likely process-heat target produces a promising label; ambiguous records without a target produce an unresolved label; no target or review record produces limited-target evidence. | This is determined from public equipment labels and rule-based classifications, not a site audit. |
| Energy case | A non-negative energy-only annual difference is labeled a gas-reference saving case. A negative difference is labeled a gas-reference premium case. | This compares electric heat against a hypothetical gas boiler. It does not quantify actual mixed-fuel or CHP savings and excludes demand charges, capital, maintenance, incentives, carbon value, and grid work. |
| Grid screen | Modeled peak at or below 70% of nearby Load ICA is lower public-screen risk; above 70% through 100% is close to the public screen; above 100% is a utility-study priority. Missing numeric ICA remains unconfirmed. | The nearest published line may not serve the facility, and its capacity is not reserved. |
| Commercial timing | The card counts joined permit, regulatory, public-notice, inspection, enforcement, violation, and reviewed CEC events within the feed’s current three-year window. | Recent activity can motivate research, but it does not alter the technical score. |
| Recommended next action | Priority order is: resolve insufficient equipment evidence; address a modeled peak above public ICA; investigate an energy premium; otherwise collect interval energy, production-hour, and process-temperature data. | The recommendation routes diligence; it is not an approval to procure equipment or approach a client with a quoted project. |
Client brief exports
Download Report opens a purpose-built, printer-friendly client report using the current scenario. It starts with a facility-specific executive assessment, then separates the analysis into eight sections covering the evidence foundation, process and technology fit, energy and economics, grid readiness, wholesale timing, commercial context, diligence actions, and the source trail. Every section explains what the data measures, how to interpret this facility's result, and its implication for the client; detailed tables preserve the underlying evidence without simply reproducing the webpage. Choose Save as PDF in the browser dialog to download it. Download Data exports the active scenario assumptions, calculated loads, public grid context, evidence summary, and recommended next action as CSV for further analysis.
Reported facility facts
These fields establish the public-data starting point.
- Stationary combustion
- Annual greenhouse-gas emissions reported for burning fuel in stationary equipment. The 2023 value supplies the EPA fallback heat proxy; it does not replace the research study's 2022 heat boundary.
- Total direct emissions
- All direct greenhouse-gas emissions reported by the facility across applicable GHGRP categories.
- Other / process difference
- Total direct emissions minus stationary-combustion emissions. It may contain process chemistry and combustion reported under other subparts. The EPA proxy excludes it; the research study separately estimates heat-producing combustion where supported, including cement kilns. The full difference is never substituted for heat emissions.
- Primary NAICS
- The industry classification reported for the facility. The tool uses it to select a sector profile.
- GHGRP facility ID
- The identifier for the facility in EPA’s Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program.
- FRS ID
- EPA’s Facility Registry Service identifier. It is used to connect GHGRP records with ECHO air-program records.
GHGRP covers facilities subject to federal reporting rules. Absence from this tool does not mean a facility has no industrial heat load.
Reported combustion equipment and fuels
This section comes from the GHGRP unit and fuel files. It helps reveal what the facility reported behind its annual combustion total.
- Reported unit groups
- The number of unit records for 2023. A record can represent one device or a grouped collection of equipment.
- Rated heat input
- The sum of disclosed maximum fuel-input capacities in MMBtu per hour. It is a nameplate-style capacity, not measured average demand.
- Fuel classes
- Fuel categories appearing in the unit records. The model currently uses a natural-gas-equivalent emissions conversion because fuel energy is not allocated by unit.
- First GHGRP appearance
- The earliest year that a comparable record appears in the downloaded GHGRP history.
- Unit name and type
- The public labels supplied by the reporter. These are the main evidence used by the process-screening rules.
- Unit CO₂
- The reported carbon dioxide associated with that record for the reporting year.
- Reporting method
- The GHGRP calculation or monitoring method attached to the unit or fuel record.
A unit may have existed before GHGRP reporting began, changed names, moved between grouped records, or crossed a reporting threshold later. Installation and rebuild dates require a nameplate, local permit, or facility record.
2023 NEI / CARB process inventory
The original implementation plan used the 2020 National Emissions Inventory until the 2023 release became available. EPA published the 2023 point/process archive in 2026, so this version uses the newer inventory rather than knowingly preserving the 2020 fallback.
For California records, the EPA process file carries CARB as the program system, CARB agency identifiers, and source-dataset labels such as 2023CARB. CARB explains that CEIDARS is its statewide system of record for facility, device, process, control, stack, and emissions information. Full CEIDARS device/process tables are not offered as a separate bulk public download, so the tool uses the CARB-submitted records distributed through NEI and keeps their provenance visible.
How the facility join works
Each distinct EIS facility is compared with the 74 GHGRP facilities. A join requires both geographic proximity and facility-name agreement. A record with a changed owner or site name can pass only when its street number also matches within 150 meters. The result exposes distance, normalized-name similarity, method, and confidence. Sixty-five facilities pass this conservative join; nine remain explicit coverage gaps.
- EIS facility ID
- EPA’s Emissions Inventory System identifier for the matched inventory site.
- CARB facility ID
- The agency facility identifier retained in the California submission. It is useful for tracing the state or district record.
- Agency unit / process ID
- Identifiers for the reported equipment group and its emissions process. They are not GHGRP unit IDs.
- SCC
- Source Classification Code, EPA’s code for the emitting activity or process.
- Unit and process description
- Public labels such as boiler, dryer, furnace, kiln, heater, coating line, or other reported activity.
- Design capacity
- A capacity and unit of measure when the inventory reports one. Blank means the process file did not supply a value.
- Calculation method
- The reported basis for estimating the pollutant emissions, such as a state/local emission factor.
- Heat term present
- A transparent keyword aid that moves explicit boilers, furnaces, dryers, heaters, steam systems, and similar descriptions to the top of the list. It is not an engineering classification.
A process appearing in the 2023 inventory may be much older. The displayed emissions are criteria and hazardous air pollutants, not GHGRP CO₂e, and the process list is not a heat balance. Installation, modification, and commissioning dates still require permits or site records.
Process-aware technology match
The tool screens each reported GHGRP unit before recommending electrification technologies. The rules look for explicit words and equipment types; they do not use a hidden probabilistic model. If the GHGRP labels identify no likely target, the joined 2023 NEI/CARB process descriptions can supply a transparent fallback shortlist.
Unit names and types are normalized and checked for process and non-process terms.
Target means likely process heat, review means ambiguous, and non-target means likely CHP, generation, pollution control, emergency, comfort, or site-utility duty.
The process duty and sector temperature profile create a ranked shortlist such as industrial heat pumps, electrode boilers, resistance heating, or thermal storage.
Each classification retains the matched term, inferred duty, temperature range, and confidence so a reviewer can challenge it.
Portfolio confidence and resolution share
The resolution share is the portion of unit evidence that could be placed confidently into likely target or likely non-target groups. A high value means fewer records remain ambiguous; it does not prove the inferred process.
Reported capacities stay visible, but the technology screen does not silently revise the selected heat baseline. Grouped records and incomplete capacity reporting require site validation. Research end-use allocations are retained separately from the current equipment classifications.
Operating context and project comparables
This section adds two reference layers without pretending they are facility measurements: EIA’s 2022 Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey for national sector energy patterns, and DOE’s Industrial Training and Assessment Centers database for observed recommendation-level costs and savings.
MECS operating context
The tool selects the facility’s three-digit NAICS sector in MECS Table 5.2 and divides each reported end-use total by total sector fuel consumption. The result shows how much sector energy is associated with process heating, conventional boilers, CHP/cogeneration, and natural gas nationally.
- Process-heating share
- Reported process-heating energy divided by total fuel consumption for the national three-digit NAICS sector.
- Conventional-boiler share
- Energy assigned to conventional boiler use, separate from CHP/cogeneration.
- CHP / cogeneration share
- Energy assigned to combined heat-and-power or cogeneration processes.
- Natural-gas share
- Natural gas divided by total sector energy across the published fuel columns.
MECS suppression symbols such as Q, *, and -- are not converted into invented values. The affected end-use totals omit those cells, so the displayed share can be conservative. This national sector pattern does not reveal the facility’s actual operating mix.
ITAC project ranges
The current cohort starts in 2018. Thermal-system projects use ARC 2.1 Combustion Systems and ARC 2.2 Thermal Systems. Fossil-to-electric projects use ARC 2.1321, “Replace fossil fuel equipment with electrical equipment.” The tool uses the same three-digit NAICS sector when at least four recent recommendations exist; otherwise it clearly falls back to all recent manufacturing assessments.
- Recommendations
- Count of recommendation records in the displayed cohort, not a count of facilities or completed projects.
- Implementation cost
- The 25th-to-75th percentile of positive ITAC implementation-cost fields in nominal dollars.
- Annual savings
- The 25th-to-75th percentile of the recommendation’s reported annual dollar savings across its resource fields.
- Simple payback
- Median implementation cost divided by annual savings at the recommendation level when the workbook does not cache a payback value.
- Implemented
- Share marked implemented among records with a final implemented or not-implemented status. Pending and unknown records are excluded from the denominator.
- P25–P75
- The middle half of observed values. It reduces the influence of extreme records but is not a confidence interval.
ITAC recommendations often cover a focused efficiency measure rather than full plant electrification. Values are not inflation-adjusted, scaled to this facility’s MW, or adjusted for California labor, interconnection, downtime, incentives, or vendor scope. Use them to set a research range, then replace them with site-specific engineering and bids.
Air permit and compliance record
The tool uses the FRS ID to join the facility to EPA ECHO’s ICIS-Air download. It summarizes the available federal air-program record; California’s local air districts remain the permitting authorities for stationary sources.
Air-district assignment and local permit records
Every facility is first assigned to one of California’s local air districts by intersecting its GHGRP coordinate with CARB’s published air-district boundary. All 74 facilities receive a jurisdiction assignment across 11 districts. This answers “which agency is responsible?” It does not, by itself, identify a district facility record or permit.
The working district adapters query public systems for 60 facilities: 32 in San Joaquin Valley, 14 in South Coast, 11 in the Bay Area, and 3 in Mojave Desert. Fifty-nine have a current reviewed facility match. New-Indy Ontario is retained as a historical-only exact-address match because South Coast FIND exposes a duplicate legacy record rather than a usable current permit history.
- District jurisdiction
- A point-in-polygon result from the facility coordinate and CARB’s published district boundary. It identifies the permitting agency to search, not a permit or facility-record match.
- Permit join not yet built
- The jurisdiction is known, but this release has not yet connected that district’s facility search, equipment permits, and dated actions. This applies to 14 facilities outside the four working adapters.
- District facility ID
- The identifier published by the local permitting agency. The join requires an exact district ID and address for San Joaquin, or a reviewed name-and-address match in South Coast.
- Representative heat permits
- Up to four San Joaquin Permit-to-Operate records whose equipment descriptions explicitly mention boilers, furnaces, dryers, ovens, heaters, kilns, or related process heat. The full district facility record remains linked.
- Application date
- The date South Coast FIND reports for the application. It establishes when the permitting process began, not when equipment began operating.
- Bay Area application record
- The district’s public recent-applications table supplies the facility and plant references, application number, initial submission date, description, and current status. The table does not expose an installation date or a complete equipment inventory.
- Mojave equipment permit
- The district facility page supplies permit number, permit and equipment descriptions, issue date, expiration date, and a permit link. Representative heat permits are selected by explicit equipment terms; issue and expiration dates are not treated as installation age.
- Deemed complete
- The date South Coast reports the application as sufficiently complete for review. It is a permitting milestone, not project completion.
- Permit to Construct issued
- A district-reported issuance date where present. A blank field means no issuance date was exposed in the joined record.
- Estimated construction
- A planned start or end date reported on a South Coast application dashboard. It may change and is not proof of installation or commissioning.
- Public notice action
- A dated San Joaquin notice such as public comment, final decision, or Authority-to-Construct issuance, joined by district facility and project ID.
- Permit expiration
- The expiration printed on a San Joaquin permit PDF. It describes the permit term, not equipment age.
The filter requires a district record with explicit project language such as new construction, installation, alteration, modification, replacement, burner work, or permit amendment. It is evidence for timely outreach, not proof that the project was built.
- ICIS-Air district
- The district name associated with the federal program record. It is retained separately from the CARB spatial jurisdiction assignment.
- Operating status
- The status recorded in the program database, such as operating or inactive.
- Source classification
- The program’s major, synthetic-minor, minor, or other source classification where reported.
- Title V program
- Whether a matched federal operating-permit program record is present.
- Latest program record update
- The newest database update date among the matched program records.
- Current HPV field
- The available High Priority Violator status field. “Not reported” is not the same as “no violation.”
- Five-year activity
- Counts of inspections, stack-test records, formal and informal enforcement actions, and violation records in the selected five-year window.
- Timeline
- Dated activity with the record category, agency, purpose, and penalty where those fields are available.
ICIS-Air update dates remain federal database timestamps. The local pilot adds actual district application, decision, issuance, estimated-construction, and expiration fields where published. Even then, only an explicit installed or commissioned event should be used as equipment age.
Commercial timing signals
The feed puts dated public events in one chronology so a researcher can see recent activity without confusing it with technical potential. It normalizes local permit milestones and expirations, public notices, ICIS-Air inspections and enforcement, and matched California Energy Commission projects.
- Permit action / decision
- A dated application, issuance, final decision, amendment, renewal, or other milestone from a joined district record.
- Public notice
- A district notice or comment-period event. It indicates public permitting activity, not construction completion.
- Permit expiration
- The expiration date printed in the joined equipment-permit record. It can suggest a renewal cycle but is not equipment age.
- Inspection / stack test
- A dated ICIS-Air activity record. It is context, not evidence of a violation.
- Violation / enforcement
- A federal, state, or local activity represented in ICIS-Air, including formal or informal actions and penalties where reported.
- CEC-funded project
- An exact reviewed recipient-and-city match to the CEC Food Production Investment Program project register.
- Within three years
- Events whose reported date is within three years before or after the feed’s August 11, 2026 snapshot.
- Latest signal
- The newest dated record in the normalized feed, regardless of category.
CEC date boundary
The FPIP register supplies an agreement/project start date, end date, recipient, city, description, and CEC funding amount. The feed uses the start date and labels it as such. It does not relabel that date as the award decision or infer that all equipment was installed then. Multi-site projects are joined only where the listed project locations include the facility city.
A recent notice or enforcement event may justify research, but it does not make electrification technically or economically better. Commercial events therefore do not change the opportunity score.
Editable screening assumptions
These eight inputs let you test a heat-and-energy scenario. Conservative, Base, and High potential presets are directional cases—not statistical confidence intervals. Selecting a preset replaces all eight values; manually editing one of these inputs changes the label to Custom. Sector anchors and tool-wide defaults are screening assumptions, not reported facts for the individual facility.
The separate heat-source control selects Stanford useful process heat (2022) or the EPA gas-equivalent proxy (2023). Validated research matches default to Stanford; missing or invalid matches use the EPA fallback. The choice is saved with the facility scenario. Presets retain the selected source; Reset restores the default source and assumptions.
| Input | Allowed range | Plain-language meaning | What to replace it with later |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electrifiable heat share | 5–100% | The portion of estimated useful heat assumed technically addressable in this scenario. | Process-by-process heat balance and temperature requirements. |
| Conversion COP / efficiency | 0.70–5.00× | Useful heat delivered per unit of electricity. A heat pump can be above 1; resistance or boiler conversion is below or near 1. | Vendor performance at actual supply, return, and ambient temperatures. |
| Existing boiler efficiency | 50–98% | Gas-reference boiler efficiency for the cost comparison. It also determines useful heat in the EPA proxy. It does not alter the study's published useful heat. | Stack test, combustion analysis, or a site energy balance appropriate to the equipment being replaced. |
| Shiftable electric share | 0–100% | The portion of new electric demand that could move in time without reducing production. | Production schedule, thermal storage design, and operating constraints. |
| Delivered gas price | $1–$40/MMBtu | The assumed energy-only price for the hypothetical natural-gas reference. | Recent invoices, actual fuel mix, fixed charges, and contract terms. |
| Electric energy price | $20–$400/MWh | A simple blended energy-only electricity price. | Interval bills, tariff components, commodity terms, and demand charges. |
| Annual operating hours | 1,000–8,760 hr/yr | The hours per year across which annual modeled heat and electricity are delivered. It converts annual energy into an operating load. | Production calendars, shift schedules, downtime, and seasonal operating records. |
| Peak-to-operating factor | 1.00–3.00× | A multiplier from operating-average electric demand to a planning peak. | Interval-meter peaks, equipment simultaneity, startup behavior, and vendor load profiles. |
Validated research matches show published temperature allocations; the fallback uses a sector anchor. The default research distribution supports the portfolio heat-band filter and temperature-fit score, while public equipment duties support the technology shortlist. Temperature is not an editable scenario input and does not automatically set electrifiable share or COP. Confirm supply and return temperatures, steam conditions, and individual duties before choosing technology.
Base sector anchors
The Base preset takes electrifiable share, shiftable share, and conversion performance from the facility’s sector. The temperature anchors below apply to the EPA fallback; a validated research match supplies a distribution instead. Neither temperature basis automatically changes the heat-energy arithmetic or these sector assumptions.
| Sector | Temperature anchor | Electrifiable share | Shiftable share | Conversion COP / efficiency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food & beverage | 120°C | 68% | 42% | 2.80× |
| Pulp & paper | 175°C | 38% | 35% | 1.70× |
| Chemicals | 220°C | 30% | 24% | 1.35× |
| Glass & minerals | 850°C | 14% | 30% | 0.95× |
| Metals | 700°C | 20% | 28% | 0.95× |
| Other manufacturing | 190°C | 40% | 30% | 1.50× |
Preset definitions
| Assumption | Conservative | Base | High potential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electrifiable heat share | 75% of sector anchor, bounded to 5–100% | Sector anchor | 115% of sector anchor, bounded to 5–95% |
| Conversion COP / efficiency | 85% of sector anchor, bounded to 0.70–5.00× | Sector anchor | 110% of sector anchor, bounded to 0.70–5.00× |
| Existing boiler efficiency | 75% | 80% | 85% |
| Shiftable electric share | 70% of sector anchor, bounded to 0–100% | Sector anchor | 120% of sector anchor, bounded to 0–90% |
| Delivered gas price | $6/MMBtu | $8/MMBtu | $12/MMBtu |
| Electric energy price | $105/MWh | $70/MWh | $55/MWh |
| Annual operating hours | 5,000 hr/yr | 6,000 hr/yr | 7,200 hr/yr |
| Peak-to-operating factor | 1.35× | 1.25× | 1.15× |
Heat, electric demand, and cost model
The calculation starts with a selected useful-heat baseline and works forward to annual energy, annual-average load, operating load, and a planning peak. Source and reporting year remain visible because the two heat baselines describe different years and emissions boundaries.
Saad, Brandt, and Azevedo (2026) supplies the default useful-heat estimate for 70 of Radar's 74 facilities, joined by exact GHGRP ID. The supplied erlae65acsupp1.xlsx contains 120 facilities and 2,345 allocated unit rows for 2022; erlae65acsupp2.pdf explains the method. Radar retains all 120 research records, without adding the 50 outside its portfolio. Four unmatched facilities use the 2023 EPA proxy. See the integration assessment and paper.
Choosing the heat baseline
For the research baseline, the tool sums published Annual Heat Demand across all end uses except Space Heat, then converts PJ/year to MWh/year. The published values already include the study's fuel-to-useful-heat efficiencies and temperature allocations. The model applies neither boiler efficiency nor Energy Share a second time. It does not scale 2022 heat by 2023 emissions. The comparison EPA estimate uses the same active boiler-efficiency assumption as the scenario.
Study process heat includes the thermal portion of CHP. Its published 40% CHP fuel-to-heat factor excludes electricity from useful heat, but the associated fuel and combustion CO₂ still support both products. The app therefore withholds on-site displacement for research CHP facilities and labels it “Needs CHP study.” Comparing research heat against 2023 rated equipment capacity would mix years and boundaries, so research-based implied utilization is also withheld.
- Research useful process heat
MWh-thermal/year = sum(non-Space-Heat Annual Heat Demand in PJ/year) × 1,000,000 ÷ 3.6Source year: 2022. Published efficiencies and allocations are already included; the research fuel-demand column is not substituted for useful heat.
- EPA fallback fuel proxy
MMBtu/year = 2023 stationary combustion tCO₂e ÷ 0.05306The factor represents 53.06 kg CO₂ per MMBtu for natural gas. Applying a CO₂ factor to reported CO₂e, and assuming gas for mixed fuels, makes this a screening proxy.
- EPA fallback useful heat
MWh-thermal/year = EPA fuel proxy × 0.293071 × boiler efficiency0.293071 converts MMBtu to MWh. This efficiency multiplier applies only to the fallback useful-heat calculation.
- Addressable heat
MWh-thermal/year = useful heat × electrifiable heat share - Average thermal load
MW-thermal = addressable heat ÷ 8,760 - Operating thermal load
MW-thermal = addressable heat ÷ annual operating hoursThis represents the average heat rate while the process is assumed to operate, rather than an all-hours annual average.
- Electric energy
MWh-electric/year = addressable heat ÷ conversion COP or efficiency - Average electric demand
MW-electric = electric energy ÷ 8,760 - Operating electric demand
MW-electric = electric energy ÷ annual operating hours - Peak electric demand
MW-electric = operating electric demand × peak factor - Flexible demand
MW-electric = operating electric demand × shiftable share - Gas-reference input
MMBtu/year = addressable heat ÷ 0.293071 ÷ boiler efficiencyA hypothetical natural-gas boiler delivering the same useful heat. This is not observed site fuel consumption or the full input to a CHP plant.
- Gas-reference energy cost
$/year = gas-reference input × delivered gas price - Electric energy cost
$/year = electric energy × electric energy price - Energy-only annual difference
gas-reference cost − electricity costA positive result is a saving against the gas reference; a negative result is a premium. Actual cement-fuel, other mixed-fuel, and CHP savings require separate fuel prices and heat/electricity allocation.
- Research on-site CO₂ ceiling, without CHP
tCO₂/year = published heat-related CO₂ excluding Space Heat × electrifiable heat shareA proportional screening ceiling. Research CHP sites return no displacement estimate until the thermal and electric fuel/emissions boundary is established.
- EPA fallback on-site CO₂e ceiling
tCO₂e/year = 2023 stationary combustion tCO₂e × electrifiable heat shareBoth ceilings are gross on-site values. Neither subtracts electricity-system or life-cycle emissions; research CO₂ and EPA CO₂e retain distinct units.
Outputs in the facility detail
- Addressable heat
- Average thermal load covered by the selected electrifiable share.
- Operating heat load
- Annual addressable thermal energy divided by selected operating hours. It is closer to equipment duty than the all-hours average, but it is not a measured peak.
- Annual-average electric demand
- Annual electricity divided by all 8,760 hours; retained for consistent portfolio comparison.
- Operating electric demand
- Annual electricity divided by the selected operating hours.
- Peak electric demand
- Operating demand multiplied by the selected planning peak factor. This is the value compared directionally with Load ICA.
- Flexible demand
- The part of operating electric load assumed shiftable.
- On-site emissions ceiling
- A proportional gross on-site ceiling using the selected source: published heat-related CO₂ for research or reported stationary-combustion CO₂e for the EPA proxy. Research CHP sites display “Needs CHP study.” This is not a life-cycle reduction.
- Energy cost savings or premium
- The annual gas-reference-versus-electricity energy difference under the selected prices. It does not estimate a mixed-fuel or CHP facility's actual savings.
- Electric energy
- Annual MWh implied by the scenario.
- Reported rated heat input
- Disclosed fuel-input capacity converted from MMBtu/hour to MW.
- Implied equipment utilization
- For the EPA proxy only, gas-equivalent average fuel input divided by disclosed rated capacity. Incomplete capacity or mixed fuels can push it above 100%. The research baseline does not calculate it across 2022 heat and 2023 rated-equipment boundaries.
- Research provenance
- Source, year, useful-heat comparison, modeled temperatures, end-use mix, and representative fuels are retained in the dossier, client report, and CSV export.
What the research estimates assume
The supplementary method uses fuel-specific emissions factors, separates process emissions from combustion, and applies fuel-to-heat efficiencies of 94% for natural-gas boilers, 75% for process heating, and 40% for CHP thermal output. Most temperatures derive from NREL's 2014 thermal-energy database and older sector process descriptions. Grouped or ambiguous units inherit sector distributions. For multi-fuel units the study selects a representative fuel using reported methane emissions, so the imported fuel profile is not a measured complete fuel mix.
Cement estimates include combustion recovered from combined kiln emissions using an assumed 40% combustion share and a national cement-fuel mix. The imported workbook allocates approximately 83% of process heat to 1,482°C and 17% to 163°C. The supplementary text describes a different 90%/10% split at 1,483°C/163°C; Radar preserves the supplied workbook values and records this discrepancy for review. These estimates address the stationary-combustion boundary gap without treating all cement process CO₂ as heat. Semiconductor and automotive heat are assigned 500°C under limited data; automotive paint-curing temperatures are described as lower in the supplementary text. Verify these temperatures before ruling out a technology. See supplementary sections S1.2.2, S2.4–S2.5, S4.25, S4.37, and S4.38.
Capital recovery, maintenance, demand charges, taxes, incentives, carbon value, hourly operating schedules, production changes, grid upgrades, and interconnection costs. It is not a project NPV or a customer-bill forecast.
Grid, utility, tariff, and flexibility model
This section adds local power-system context without substituting a generic market hub when facility-level public evidence is unavailable.
Geographic matches
- Electric service territory
- Matched from published utility territory geometry or an official municipal service rule. Boundaries can overlap or change and are not legal service confirmation.
- Nearest public LOAD pricing node
- The great-circle nearest published CAISO load-node coordinate with at least 55 of the latest 60 archived day-ahead market days.
- Node distance
- Straight-line distance from the facility coordinates to the published node coordinates.
- Tariff candidates
- Official schedules that appear plausible from public location and load context. The actual rate depends on billed demand, voltage, commodity provider, and special contracts.
The nearest public node is a locational signal. It is not proof of the meter’s confidential settlement configuration.
Public distribution capacity
For facilities in PG&E or SCE territory, the tool queries the utility’s official Load Integration Capacity Analysis (Load ICA) line layer. It measures from the EPA facility coordinate to each returned line geometry and retains the nearest published segment only when it is within 1,600 meters.
- MW added-load screen
- The utility’s published estimate of incremental uniform load that the selected line segment could host before significant distribution upgrades, subject to the utility’s study method and data vintage.
- Published line
- The utility feeder, circuit, substation, node, or line-section identifiers attached to the nearest returned segment. These identifiers do not prove that the facility is served from that line.
- Voltage
- The nominal line or circuit voltage published for the selected segment.
- Limiting criterion
- The grid condition that most restricts added load where the utility publishes it, such as steady-state voltage or thermal loading.
- Analysis vintage
- The utility’s analysis or map-update date. Capacity can change as circuits switch, loads connect, or upgrades enter service.
- Line distance
- The shortest calculated distance from the EPA facility coordinate to the published line geometry. It makes the spatial uncertainty visible.
- Modeled peak-demand comparison
- The selected scenario’s planning peak compared with published line capacity. This is more decision-relevant than annual average, but remains directional because the line may not be the service feeder and the capacity is not reserved.
- Explicit gap
- No value is invented when no line is within the evidence radius, the utility does not publish comparable data, or source terms prevent this site from republishing downloaded values.
The nearest line may not be the facility’s actual service feeder. Published capacity is not reserved capacity, a cost estimate, or a delivery timeline. Confirm the service point, peak MW, voltage, protection requirements, queued projects, and upgrade scope with the utility.
Dispatch controls
- Shift duration
- How many hours of flexible electric heat move from a higher-price period to a lower-price period. The facility needs thermal storage, process buffering, hybrid fuel, or schedule flexibility to bridge this interval.
- Round-trip efficiency
- Energy retained after charging, storing, and delivering shifted heat.
- Available dispatch days
- How many days per week the process is assumed able to participate.
- Capturable wholesale value
- The assumed portion of the modeled wholesale spread that could become customer value after commercial and operational constraints.
Dispatch defaults and ranges
| Control | Default | Allowed values | Role in the calculation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shift duration | 4 hours | 2, 4, 6, or 8 hours | Sets the number of daily low-price and high-price hours and the energy moved per event. |
| Round-trip efficiency | 90% | 50–100% | Increases the electricity attributed to lower-price charging hours to account for losses. |
| Available dispatch days | 5 days/week | 1–7 days/week | Sets the annual opportunity at 52 times the selected weekly availability. |
| Capturable wholesale value | 60% | 0–100% | Applies a final haircut for tariff, program, aggregation, forecasting, and operating frictions. |
How the day-ahead value is calculated
For each complete matched-node day, the model identifies the selected number of lowest-price hours to run electric heat harder, preheat, or build thermal inventory. It selects the same number of non-overlapping highest-price hours to reduce electric input while drawing on stored heat, hybrid fuel, or process buffers. It does not assume that production simply stops. The model adjusts the charging-hour cost for round-trip efficiency and keeps only days with a positive modeled spread.
- Flexible electric load
MW = operating electric demand × shiftable share - Energy moved per event
MWh = flexible electric load × shift durationThis is an electric-equivalent inventory requirement, not a detailed thermal-storage design.
- Daily day-ahead spread
$/MW-day = sum(high-price hours) − sum(low-price hours ÷ round-trip efficiency)Days at or below zero are assigned no dispatch and no value.
- Annual available days
days/year = 52 × available dispatch days per week - Positive-spread frequency
fraction = positive-spread sample days ÷ evaluated sample days - Annual shifted energy
MWh/year = energy per event × annual available days × positive-spread frequency - Indicative day-ahead timing value
$/year = sum(positive daily spreads) × flexible MW × (annual available days ÷ evaluated days) × capturable share
For the real-time backtest, the model retains the hours selected from day-ahead prices, settles those same hours against complete hourly real-time observations, assigns zero to days without a positive day-ahead schedule, and annualizes across the complete real-time sample. It never selects a different schedule with hindsight. The displayed real-time persistence percentage is the annualized real-time result divided by the annualized day-ahead result.
- Indicative day-ahead timing value
- The annualized wholesale spread from the matched node under the selected controls and capturable-value assumption. It is a prioritization signal, not utility-bill savings.
- Negative observations
- Day-ahead hourly prices below zero in the archived sample.
- Run / build-heat hours
- The CAISO hour-ending periods most often selected for increased electric-heat output or building thermal inventory.
- Reduce / draw-heat hours
- The periods most often selected to reduce electric input while maintaining the process with stored heat, hybrid fuel, or production buffers.
- Real-time nodal backtest
- The value of the same day-ahead-selected hours when settled against the matched node’s historical five-minute real-time prices, averaged to hourly. It tests whether the advance scheduling signal persisted; it is not a hindsight-optimized strategy.
The price chart uses the exact matched public LOAD node for both markets. The green line is the day-ahead planning-price average, the orange line is the historical real-time average, and shading shows how often each hour was selected. No trading-hub price is used to fill a missing node.
A customer may not be directly exposed to nodal prices. Confirm interval bills, demand charges, time-of-use periods, aggregator or demand-response terms, program rules, thermal-buffer capacity, production constraints, and operational penalties before treating the signal as addressable savings.
What to verify before outreach or investment
Use the dossier to prepare better questions. A serious next step should obtain the following evidence.
- Equipment
Confirm which public unit groups represent boilers, furnaces, CHP, thermal oxidizers, emergency units, or facility-wide aggregation.
- Age and permits
Retrieve installation, rebuild, burner-replacement, and permit issuance dates from nameplates and local air-district documents.
- Process conditions
Confirm end uses, heat-transfer medium, supply and return temperatures, steam pressure, production hours, turndown, and redundancy requirements.
- Energy use
Request 12–24 months of interval electric data, fuel use, bills, tariff details, and contract terms.
- Electrical service
Check service capacity, billed maximum demand, voltage, feeder constraints, upgrade scope, and interconnection timeline.
- Flexibility
Identify batch timing, clean-in-place windows, product buffers, thermal storage, and controls that can move load safely.
- Project economics
Add equipment, construction, downtime, maintenance, financing, incentives, emissions compliance, and residual-value assumptions.
Public sources
The links below lead to the primary public programs used by the tool. Individual facility details also link to the relevant ECHO dossier, territory evidence, tariff book, and map location.
Source vintage is shown in the interface because public databases update on different schedules. Always re-open the linked primary source before making a time-sensitive decision.
Integrated research source
Glossary
- MMBtu
- One million British thermal units, a common unit for fuel energy.
- PJ
- Petajoule: one quadrillion joules. One PJ equals 277,777.7778 MWh; the research workbook reports annual heat and fuel demand in PJ/year.
- MWh
- Megawatt-hour, a unit of energy. One MW used for one hour equals one MWh.
- MWth
- Megawatts of thermal power: the rate at which useful heat is delivered.
- MWe
- Megawatts of electric power.
- COP
- Coefficient of performance: useful heat output divided by electric input.
- tCO₂e
- Metric tons of carbon-dioxide equivalent, combining greenhouse gases on a common basis.
- tCO₂
- Metric tons of carbon dioxide only; the research workbook's heat-related emissions use this unit.
- CHP
- Combined heat and power: fuel produces useful heat and electricity. Thermal displacement requires allocation of both outputs and their associated fuel and emissions.
- NAICS
- North American Industry Classification System code.
- GHGRP
- EPA Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program.
- FRS
- EPA Facility Registry Service, used to connect records across programs.
- NEI
- EPA National Emissions Inventory for criteria and hazardous air pollutants.
- CEIDARS
- California Emissions Inventory Data Analysis and Reporting System, CARB’s statewide inventory database.
- SCC
- Source Classification Code for an emissions process or activity.
- MECS
- EIA Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey.
- ITAC
- DOE Industrial Training and Assessment Centers program and public assessment database.
- FPIP
- California Energy Commission Food Production Investment Program.
- Title V
- A federal operating-permit program for major and certain other air-emission sources.
- HPV
- High Priority Violator, an EPA air-enforcement designation or database field.
- PNode
- A CAISO pricing node representing a location on the wholesale power system.
- DAM
- Day-ahead market, where power is scheduled and priced before the operating day.
- RTM
- Real-time market, where prices respond closer to actual system operation.
- Load ICA
- Load Integration Capacity Analysis, a utility planning estimate of how much incremental load a distribution line segment may accommodate before significant upgrades.
- Tariff
- The utility’s published rates, charges, eligibility rules, and service conditions.
Ready to use the guide alongside a facility?
Return to the radar